Is Now a Good Time to Consider a Venture in the US?

I wrote this as an introduction for 16 Vital Questions, A Primer for Indians Traveling in the U.S. ICFAI Books will be publishing this book soon as a guide for students and interns from India planning a sojourn into the U.S. for work or school.

But I thought it would be particularly relevant to the group here as well since we talk about multicultural issues and the interdependence of our economies!


Introduction –Is Now a Good Time to Consider a Venture in the US?

Mr. Muralidaran, the General Manager at ICFAI Books, wrote me a question last night that gave me pause.

In view of the recent happenings in the US (financial crisis, recession in the economy, job cuts, and the presidential elections) I was wondering whether you would like to make some modifications to your book.

My first thought was that I didn’t want to change or add anything.

The information in the book is as complete as we can make it, barring the usual volatility of situations. Everything is still true and correct. The opportunities in the U.S. are always changing, but there are always excellent opportunities here for bright, ambitious people.

But then I started thinking about all of the parents that will read this book as they consider educational and professional opportunities for their children. My son Michael (we call him Mickey) just moved into the dorms and started as a freshman at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, which is about six hours by car from where we live. As a parent, this still seems like it’s a very long way away. If the best opportunity for his particular desires and ambitions had been literally halfway around the world, I would have had some trepidation. I would want to know everything I could find out about the place he would be spending time. These decisions bear careful consideration and what we’ve been reading and hearing in the news is enough to make anyone second-guess a good decision.

I decided that 16 Vital Questions can’t be published without some mention of the unprecedented activity of the last three to six months.

Economics and politics work in cycles, like the weather. We know that every year there will be winters and summers, as well as some unpredictable “storms.”

Economics – The cycles of the stock market are well known. Recent banking failures give us all pause. These organizations made bad financial decisions and, although there is disagreement among Americans about whether government (taxpayer) money should be used to sustain and repair them; the decision for better or worse has been made and we will find out how things progress.

The long-term implications are unknown, but history tells us that the United States has a very resilient economy. This may be the “winter” part of the economic cycle. There is lots of discussion about how long or cold the “winter” may be where the next storms might happen, but no one doubts that there will be a recovery. The very size, diversity and complexity of the U.S. economy create new opportunities out of every failure. If stockholders who held shares during the Great Depression of the 1920s (the worst financial crisis in our history) had simply held on to their stocks for one or two years, their holdings would have come back to their previous value.

The Financial Times of London reports today (11/18/2008)

Economists believe that the US has been in recession since April and will remain there until the middle of 2009, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

This is actually excellent news for anyone planning an education or venture in the US. Prices for housing, fuel and food are lower than usual at the moment; and as the economy improves, (as it certainly will in the next one to three years) there will be more opportunities in that follow.

It’s not a bad time to begin a career in the US, if one can find a solid opportunity in a growth industry in some parts of the US. Unemployment is higher than usual at the moment, and it may be prudent to look very carefully at the finance and heavy manufacturing industries until we know more about how events will play out in the next few months. But there are industries that are doing very well.

Two examples of heavy manufacturing depend a great deal on a variation of product and region - The automotive industry in Detroit Michigan is laying people off, but the Cessna small airplane factory in Independence Kansas has not even slowed down.

Good opportunities can be found if you research variations within an industry and look in different parts of the country.


Politics – Barack Obama’s election has created excitement among young people all over the world.

Last night, (11/17/2008) my blogging buddy Rajani Paniker from Bangalore posted this on the Ravenwerks Blog:

The Chancery Pavilion at Bangalore witnessed Obama’s supporters eagerly waiting for the latest U.S. Presidential election updates. When the final results were telecast on the television, a loud cheer was heard and people were found hugging and congratulating each other. . . .

Events here in the US impact India much more than they did several years ago, and events in India are watched from the United States with much greater interest as we find our companies, economies, friendships and families more interconnected than ever before.

Conclusion -

I look forward to an era of continued cooperation, collaboration and prosperity between the U.S. and India. In four years, when my son Mickey graduates from college, I expect that we will be back to the “summer” part of the cycle yet again. If you, or your loved ones are able to make a trip, I hope that the cycles of economics and politics work in your favor. I am sure that traveling and commerce brings us better understanding, prosperity and friendship.

Warm regards and best wishes in your endeavors and travels,

-Paula Williams
www.ravenwerks.com
Transcending Boundaries